One of April’s greatest clichés is this: there are only two sure things in life: death and taxes.

 

(And after being told by Uncle Sam that hookers don’t count as a business expense, taxes might be the lesser of the two ills.)

 

But we’d like to suggest that there are actually three sure things in life: death, taxes and first-round defensive tackles.

 

Our friends at www.pro-football-reference.com recently added a searchable NFL draft engine, and it is just plain fun to search – especially if you’re a fan of big, beefy defensive stoppers.

 

We decided to study first-round picks from 1978-2000 to figure out how each position has fared in the big league. The time frame isn’t random – 1978 was the beginning of the Live Ball Era that's still thriving 30 years later, and we wanted to stop at 2000 to make sure careers have had plenty of time to get established.

 

We ranked the positions in two ways: percentage of first-round picks to make a Pro Bowl (reach their potential, for at least one season), and percentage of first-round picks to be a main starter for 5+ seasons (become an asset to their team).

 

Here's how they broke down:

 

5+ YEAR STARTERS (by position, 1978-2000)

	1st rounders	5+ year starters	%
DT	37	27	0.73
Guard	34	24	0.706
Center	10	7	0.7
Tackle	72	50	0.694
LB	78	51	0.654
DE	87	52	0.598
DB	94	55	0.585
WR	71	41	0.577
QB	43	23	0.535
TE	23	12	0.522
RB	93	37	0.397

 

	1st rounders	Pro Bowlers	%
DT	37	17	0.459
QB	43	18	0.418
Tackle	72	29	0.402
RB	93	36	0.387
LB	78	30	0.385
Guard	34	13	0.382
TE	23	8	0.381
WR	71	26	0.366
DB	94	33	0.351
Center	10	3	0.3
DE	87	23	0.28

 

In both areas, defensive tackle came out on top – 73 percent of the 37 first-round DTs started at least five years in the league, and 45.9 percent of them made at least one Pro Bowl.

 

A look at the group shows an awful lot of bang for the buck – you have to dig pretty hard to find the all-out busts.

 

On the other end of the excellence spectrum are the guys lining up next to those DTs.

 

First-round defensive ends have a decent record of contributing (59.8 percent start 5+ years), but they are last among the positions in actually making the Pro Bowl (a meager 28 percent).

 

That number certainly seems to justify Minnesota’s recent deal for Pro Bowl DE Jared Allen – the chances of drafting a Pro Bowler in the first round are just a smidge better than 1 in 4.

 

Breaking down the numbers a bit further, the Pro Bowl stats are misleading for quarterbacks. It’s significantly easier to make the Pro Bowl at QB, where there are regularly four guys who qualify from each conference (25 percent of the 16 starters), than it is at other positions like guard (3-4 players among 32 starters) or linebacker (7-8 guys among 60 starters).

 

Running back is also a deeper position for the Pro Bowl, with three or four per conference each year among 16 main tailbacks.

 

It’s interesting to note that first-round running backs almost featured more Pro Bowlers (38.7 percent) than five-year starters (39.7 percent). And although running backs typically make up 10 percent of an NFL roster, they accounted for 14.5 percent of the first-round picks from 1978-2000.

 

The first-round wide-receiver numbers put a dent in the Cold, Hard Football Facts’ deeply-held belief that first-round pass-catchers are not good risks – WR was actually the safest of any skill position (57.7 percent start 5+ years). However, the percentage of Pro Bowlers at wide receiver (36.6 percent) was the worst of the skill positions.

 

The wide receiver and defensive back percentages were almost identical, showing that it takes a pretty unique combination of abilities to make it big at either position.