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Bedtime for Bonzo
Cold, Hard Football Facts for May 1, 2007

Looks like Bedtime for Bonzo, at least as a mock draft expert.
 
The world’s only pigskin prognosticating primate set the gridiron jungle ablaze in 2005 by picking games against the spread simply by flipping a coin … and beating the top experts at CBS Sportsline over the course of an entire season. He grew into a media darling last week, in the days leading up to the draft, with stories about him in The Wall Street Journal, the Associated Press wire, and plenty of blogs and web sites out there in pigskin cyberspace.
 
But flipping a coin is a 50-50 proposition, even for Bonzo the Idiot Monkey. The odds of being right are quite a bit lower when it comes time to conduct a mock draft by randomly pulling names out of our Appalachian State ball cap.
 
We found this out the hard way … through public humiliation (believe you us, the sting of a lifetime of personal humiliation wears off around 10th grade).
 
Bonzo didn’t get a single pick right beyond JaMarcus Russell to Oakland with the No. 1 pick. And we spotted Bonzo that pick. He went 0-for-31 for the rest of the round.
 
But it could have been worse for Bonzo.
 
He could have been one of the guys at Scouts Inc.
 
Scouts Inc. is an organization of football talent evaluators who “watch games, break down films and use extensive experience and contacts … to provide the deepest and most detailed scouting reports available anywhere.” Bonzo is a monkey.
 
Still, there wasn’t a whole lot of difference between their two mock drafts.
 
Scouts Inc. correctly named just 3 of 32 first-round picks – or 2 of the final 31 after Russell to Oakland with the No. 1 pick.
 
Considering the amount of time, energy, emotion and research each party devoted to scoping out college football talent, Bonzo clearly provided more bang for the buck ... which means little to none.
 
Otherwise, however, it was a pretty good year for the “pundits” and their mock drafts ... relatively speaking. And when it comes time to comparing the "pundits" to primates, relative is the operative word.
 
In our first two years of tracking mock drafts, our six “experts” were correct with just 24.5 percent of their cumulative first-round picks. When it came time simply to assign the right position with the right team, they were correct 40.9 percent of the time. This year, our six "pundits" nailed 29.7 percent of their first-round picks and identified the correct position a team would draft with 40.6 percent of their first-round picks.
 
Basically, we give mock drafts credit for putting the right player with the right team. We also give credit if a mock draft correctly identifies the position that a team will fill.
 
Here's how our six "pundits" (and Bonzo) stacked up in both categories:
"Pundit"
Correct Players
Correct Positions
OurLads.com
12 of 32 (37.5%)
13 of 32 (40.6%)
Jay Glazer (Fox Sports)
11 of 32 (34.4%)
17 of 32 (53.1%)
Rick Gosselin
11 of 32 (34.4%)
11 of 32 (34.4%)
Sister Prisco
10 of 32 (31.2%)
15 of 32 (46.9%)
Mel Kiper
10 of 32 (31.2%)
13 of 32 (40.6%)
Scouts Inc.
3 of 32 (9.4%)
9 of 32 (28.1%)
Bonzo the Idiot Monkey
1 of 32 (3.1%)
4 of 32 (12.5%)
 
We need to give a tip of the greasy John Deere cap to the guys at OurLads.com. For the third year in a row - every year we've done this exercise - OurLads tops the list.
 
As usual, there was a fair bit of success early in the first round, and very little the further we move down the draft board. As for all those mock drafts that go beyond the first round? Not even worth the energy. Guys can barely get any picks right in the second half of the first round, let alone anything beyond the first.
 
Our six “pundits” (combined) this year:
  • Accurately predicted 57 of 192 (29.7%) first-round picks.
  • Accurately predicted 46 of 96 picks (47.9%) in the first half of the first round.
  • Accurately predicted 11 of 96 picks (11.5%) in the second half of the first round
In the past two years, we included the mock draft of Ron Borges of the Boston Globe. But Borges didn’t come down for breakfast this year. He will, however, be back later this week as his two-month suspension for being a hack comes to an end. At the urging of John McClain of the Houston Chronicle, we replaced Borges this year with Rick Gosselin of the Dallas Morning News.
 
“Rick’s as good as anyone I’ve seen at this,” said McClain.
 
He wasn’t lying: Gosselin performed fairly well and will remain our permanent replacement in future mock draft reports. Borges has a long track record of putting his name above things he didn't write, from columns to his weekly NFL picks in the Boston Globe. We don't even know if he does his own mock draft. No need to include him in the future ... if he has one.
 
Here's a look at the player each team picked and the mock drafts of all six of our "pundits." The first chart shows how the draft specialists fared. The second list shows how the football generalists fared. Correct players and positions are denoted by bold text.
 
Remember, when teams traded positions (which several did this year) we gave the "pundit" credit for listing the right player with the right team, even if the pick occurred at a different position on the board.
 
DRAFT SPECIALISTS MOCK DRAFTS
Team
Actual Pick
OurLads.com
Mel Kiper
Scouts Inc.
Oakland
Russell, QB
Russell, QB
Russell, QB
Russell, QB
Detroit
Johnson, WR
Johnson, WR
Johnson, WR
Adams, DE
Cleveland
Thomas, OT
Thomas, OT
Thomas, OT
Peterson, RB
Tampa
Adams, DE
Adams, DE
Adams, DE
Johnson, WR
Arizona
Brown, OT
Brown, OT
Brown, OT
Thomas, OT
Washington
Landry, S
Landry, S
Landry, S
Okoye, DT
Minnesota
Peterson, RB
Quinn, QB
Peterson, RB
Quinn, QB
Atlanta
Anderson, DE
Anderson, DE
Okoye, DT
Landry, S
Miami
Ginn, WR
Okoye, DT
Quinn, QB
Brown, OT
Houston
Okoye, DT
Peterson, RB
Hall, CB
Hall, CB
San Fran
Willis, LB
Willis, LB
Willis, LB
Branch, DT
Buffalo
Lynch, RB
Lynch, RB
Harris, LB
Willis, LB
St. Louis
Carriker, DE
Carriker, DE
Anderson, DE
Anderson, DE
Carolina
Revis, CB (NYJ)
Nelson, S
Nelson, S
Olsen, TE
Pittsburgh
Timmons, OLB
Hall, CB
Timmons, OLB
Timmons, OLB
Green Bay
Harrell, DT
Meachem, WR
Lynch, RB
Lynch, RB
Jacksonville
Moss, DE (Denver)
Revis, CB
Carriker, DE
Carriker, DE
Cincinnati
Hall, CB
Spencer, DE
Revis, CB
Revis, CB
Tennessee
Griffin, FS
Bowe, WR
Ginn, WR
Ginn, WR
N.Y. Giants
Ross, CB
Staley, OT
Staley, OT
Posluszny, OLB
Denver
Nelson, FS (Jax)
Moss, DE
Branch, DT
Moss, DE
Dallas
Quinn, QB (Cle)
Ross, CB
Ross, CB
Bowe, WR
Kansas City
Bowe, WR
Branch, DT
Harrell, DT
Jarrett, WR
New England
Meriweather, S
Harris, LB
Meachem, WR
Ross, CB
N.Y. Jets
Beason, OLB (Car)
Olsen, TE
Olsen, TE
Houston, CB
Philly
Spencer, DE (Dallas)
Posluszny, LB
Meriweather, S
Griffin, S
New Orleans
Meachem, WR
Timmons, OLB
Houston, CB
Harrell, DT
New England
Staley, OT (SF)
Meriweather, S
Posluszny, LB
Nelson, S
Baltimore
Grubbs, G
Grubbs, G
Grubbs, G
Staley, OT
San Diego
Davis, WR
Ginn, WR
Bowe, WR
Meachem, WR
Chicago
Olsen, TE
Beason, OLB
Spencer, DE
Beason, OLB
Indy
Gonzalez, WR
Houston, CB
Beason, LB
Spencer, DE
 
 
FOOTBALL GENERALISTS MOCK DRAFTS
Team
Actual Pick
Gosselin
Prisco
Glazer
Oakland
Russell, QB
Russell, QB
Russell, QB
Russell, QB
Detroit
Johnson, WR
Johnson, WR
Adams, DE
Johnson, WR
Cleveland
Thomas, OT
Thomas, OT
Thomas, OT
Quinn, QB
Tampa
Adams, DE
Adams, DE
Johnson, WR
Adams, DE
Arizona
Brown, OT
Peterson, RB
Peterson, RB
Thomas, OT
Washington
Landry, S
Landry, S
Landry, S
Landry, S
Minnesota
Peterson, RB
Hall, CB
Quinn, QB
Peterson, RB
Atlanta
Anderson, DE
Brown, OT
Anderson, DE
Hall, CB
Miami
Ginn, WR
Quinn, QB
Brown, OT
Ginn, WR
Houston
Okoye, DT
Revis, CB
Okoye, DT
Brown, OT
San Fran
Willis, LB
Willis, LB
Willis, LB
Willis, LB
Buffalo
Lynch, RB
Lynch, RB
Hall, CB
Okoye, DT
St. Louis
Carriker, DE
Carriker, DE
Carriker, DE
Carriker, DE
Carolina
Revis, CB (NYJ)
Anderson, DE
Olsen, TE
Timmons, OLB
Pittsburgh
Timmons, OLB
Timmons, OLB
Revis, CB
Beason, OLB
Green Bay
Harrell, DT
Meachem, WR
Harrell, DT
Lynch, RB
Jacksonville
Moss, DE (Denver)
Ginn, WR
Nelson, FS
Revis, CB
Cincinnati
Hall, CB
Nelson, FS
Branch, DT
Nelson, FS
Tennessee
Griffin, FS
Bowe, WR
Lynch, RB
Anderson, DE
N.Y. Giants
Ross, CB
Staley, OT
Houston, CB
Houston, CB
Denver
Nelson, FS (Jax)
Moss, DE
Spencer, DE
Spencer, DE
Dallas
Quinn, QB (Cle)
Ross, CB
Jarrett, WR
Ross, CB
Kansas City
Bowe, WR
Okoye, DT
Staley, OT
Bowe, WR
New England
Meriweather, S
Harris, ILB
Harris, ILB
Harris, ILB
N.Y. Jets
Beason, OLB (Car)
Olsen, TE
Moss, DE
McCauley, CB
Philly
Spencer, DE (Dallas)
Posluszny, LB
Timmons, OLB
Branch, DT
New Orleans
Meachem, WR
Harrell, DT
Ginn, WR
Meachem, WR
New England
Staley, OT (SF)
Meriweather, S
Ross, CB
Gonzalez, WR
Baltimore
Grubbs, G
Grubbs, G
Grubbs, G
Staley, OT
San Diego
Davis, WR
Beason, OLB
Meachem, WR
Griffin, M
Chicago
Olsen, TE
Jarrett, WR
Beason, OLB
Olsen, TE
Indy
Gonzalez, WR
Griffin, S
Smith, WR
Grubbs, G
 
 
 

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