Call us crazy, but we judge football teams only by how they play on the football field.

And if you’re expecting anyone other than the defending Super Bowl champion Colts to top the list, we’re sorry to disappoint you. The Colts suffered some losses this offseason. And repeating in the NFL is never easy. But they haven’t had their Super Bowl rings repossessed – they’re still the team to beat until on-field evidence says otherwise.

These rankings will vary wildly enough as we ride the roller-coaster of an NFL season, so let’s wait until we see some bodies fly over the edge of the Coney Island Cyclone before we go shaking up everything.

Could teams at the bottom now end up on top at the end of the season? Of course they could. We pegged 2006 Cinderellas New Orleans and the Jets as sleepers this time last year, but most figured they’d be just plain asleep. Then again, Dominant Dozen types like Pittsburgh and Carolina ended up as stale as three-day-old pastry.

By December, these early rankings will be quaint reminders of summer’s naiveté.

No one knows anything in August – except that they can’t wait for it to end, so all the speculation can become maddening/amazing/Cold, Hard Football Fact on the NFL’s main stage.

1. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (previous rank: same)

• 2006 record (includes playoffs): 16-4 (8-1 vs. Quality Opponents)
• Cold, Hard Football Facts Flashback: The Colts were the best in the league in 2006 on third-and-short runs, converting 61.8 percent of attempts (Giants No. 2, 59.2 percent).
• Optimism: Manning keeps on being Manning, Colts grab another championship.
• Pessimism: Offense loses a step without LT Tarik Glenn, and defensive deficiencies return for a classic case of Super Bowl hangover.

2. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (previous rank: same)

• 2006 record: 14-5 (4-4 vs. Quality Opponents)
• Cold, Hard Football Facts Flashback: Departed RB Corey Dillon was the best third-and-short man in the NFL in 2006, picking up nine first downs in 10 tries. He also scored seven times on nine runs inside the 3, No. 2 in the league (Larry Johnson No. 1).
•  Optimism: Brady + Belichick + newcomers = fourth title of the decade.
•  Pessimism: Tense locker room + aging veterans + unrealistic expectations = crying in the chowder.

3. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (previous rank: same)

• 2006 record: 14-3 (4-3 vs. Quality Opponents)
• Cold, Hard Football Facts Flashback: About the only area where LaDainian Tomlinson struggled in 2006 came after he’d hit the 20-carry mark in a game. After 20 carries, LT averaged a mortal 3.2 yards per tote (48 carries for 153 yards).
• Optimism: Loaded Chargers are another year smarter and more mature, and this time they learn how to win when it counts.
• Pessimism: Norv Turner? Are you kidding?

4. CHICAGO BEARS (previous rank: same)

• 2006 record: 15-4 (4-2 vs. Quality Opponents)
• Cold, Hard Football Facts Flashback: Chicago's defense has led the NFL in yards per pass for two straight seasons; their 5.83 yards-per-pass allowed in 2006 was almost a half-yard better than No. 2 Jacksonville (6.27).
• Optimism: With defensive stalwarts Tommie Harris and Mike Brown healthy and offensive additions like TE Greg Olsen and WR Devin Hester boosting production, the Bears will finish what they started in 2006.
• Pessimism: Rex Grossman is to Super Bowl rings what kryptonite is to Superman.

5. BALTIMORE RAVENS (previous rank: same)

• 2006 record: 13-4 (3-2 vs. Quality Opponents)
• Cold, Hard Football Facts Flashback: The Ravens led the NFL in scoring defense last year (201 points allowed); Baltimore has been in the top 10 in this all-important category in seven of Brian Billick's eight years at the helm.
• Optimism: They’ve still got the defense, now they have the RB (Willis McGahee). Home field in the playoffs will be theirs.
• Pessimism: All of the defense in the world won’t help if QB Steve McNair pulls another playoff choke (18 of 29, 173 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT vs. Indy).

6. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (previous rank: same)

• 2006 record: 11-7 (3-2 vs. Quality Opponents)
• Cold, Hard Football Facts Flashback: 28 of WR Devery Henderson’s 32 catches went for first downs in 2006, the best percentage in the league (87.5 percent).
• Optimism: Reg-gie! Reg-gie! Reg-gie! Su-per! Su-per! Su-per!
• Pessimism: With a raised profile and a first-place schedule, Saints and their awful run defense (allowed 4.94 yards per rush attempt) will slide back to the pack.

7. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (previous rank: same)

• 2006 record: 11-7 (2-3 vs. Quality Opponents)
• Cold, Hard Football Facts Flashback: WR Hank Baskett caught the two longest receptions in the NFL last year: 89 yards from A.J. Feeley and 87 yards from Donovan McNabb. The two catches represented almost 40 percent of his 464 yards (on 22 catches) for the season. 
• Optimism: With six 10-win seasons in the last seven under Andy Reid, the Eagles are a playoff lock.
• Pessimism: What will happen when McNabb injures his (insert body part here) and misses the second half?

8. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (previous rank: same)

• 2006 record: 10-8 (2-4 vs. Quality Opponents)
• Cold, Hard Football Facts Flashback: Seattle ballcarriers were dropped for losses 56 times in 2006, most in the league.
• Optimism: With QB Matt Hasselbeck and RB Shaun Alexander at full strength, Seattle gets back to Super Bowl form in incredibly weak NFC West.
• Pessimism: 2005 was so two years ago; this team is too old and too soft. 

9. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (previous rank: 10)

• 2006 record: 8-8 (4-3 vs. Quality Opponents)
• Cold, Hard Football Facts Flashback: Maurice Jones-Drew averaged 7.2 yards a carry in the first half of games last year, 4.3 in the second half.
• Optimism: Jags were one of best teams on paper in 2006: +97 in the points department, with seven of eight losses by a TD or less. They’ll have better luck in 2007 and win 12 games.
• Pessimism: No significant additions to an 8-8 team? Sounds like another 8-8 team.

10. NEW YORK JETS (previous rank: 19)

• 2006 record: 10-7 (1-4 vs. Quality Opponents)
• Cold, Hard Football Facts Flashback: WR Jerricho Cotchery led the NFL with 26 third-down catches for first downs in 2006 (Marques Colston No. 2 with 24).
• Optimism: All Hail Mangenius! Jets get coached up en route to playoffs again.
• Pessimism: Blue-collar Jets are no match for high-flying AFC powers such as NE and Indy.

11. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (previous rank: same)

• 2006 record: 9-8 (3-4 vs. Quality Opponents)
• Cold, Hard Football Facts Flashback: The Chiefs ranked 15th in scoring offense – their third-worst showing since 1990.
• Optimism: QB Damon Huard repeats 98.0 passer rating of 2006, Chiefs make a run.
• Pessimism: Huard reverts to third-string form thanks to thin receiver crew; mediocrity ensues.

12. DENVER BRONCOS (previous rank: 13)

• 2006 record: 9-7 (3-5 vs. Quality Opponents)
• Cold, Hard Football Facts Flashback: Jason Elam missed two of 29 field goals and had his sixth straight season of 115 or more points.
• Optimism: Jay Cutler’s passer rating finishes in the low 90s, and the Broncos cruise to 11 wins.
• Pessimism: Cutler suffers sophomore slump, pass rush is a dud, Denver misses playoffs for fourth time in seven years.

13. DALLAS COWBOYS (previous rank: 12)

• 2006 record: 9-8 (1-4 vs. Quality Opponents)
• Cold, Hard Football Flashback: Tony Romo was the best on 3rd-and-long last year, gaining first downs 47.5 percent of the time (Brees No. 2, 46.2).
• Optimism: Maestro coach Wade Phillips conducts all that talent perfectly, Cowboys win East.
• Pessimism: Romo never gets over “the botch,” Jerry Jones is calling Jeff George's agent by Week 9, Phillips reviled as a bum.

14. CINCINNATI BENGALS (previous rank: same)

• 2006 record: 8-8 (3-5 vs. Quality Opponents)
• Cold, Hard Football Facts Flashback: Chad Johnson led the NFL in receiving yards last year (1,369), but had fewer receiving touchdowns (7) than teammate/No. 3 receiver Chris Henry (9).
• Optimism: Defense comes together under Marvin Lewis, Bengals finally make the playoff push the "pundits" have anticipated for years.
• Pessimism: Injuries, defections on offensive line have Palmer running for his life, Marvin Lewis ends up as "former Bengals head coach."

15. PITTSBURGH STEELERS (previous rank: 16)

• 2006 record: 8-8 (2-4 vs. Quality Opponents)
• Cold, Hard Football Facts Flashback: Ben Roethlisberger threw 11 fourth-quarter interceptions in 2006, most in the NFL. He also threw five red-zone INTs, most in the NFL.
• Optimism: Big Ben bounces back, coach Mike Tomlin fits in tight as a tick, and fans are left Steely McBeaming with pride.
• Pessimism: With Cowher Power unplugged, Steelers can’t keep up their chins.

16. CAROLINA PANTHERS (previous rank: 18)

• 2006 record: 8-8 (3-2 vs. Quality Opponents)
• Cold, Hard Football Facts Flashback: Punter Jason Baker had a per-punt average of less than 40 yards over four years and five teams before coming to Carolina in 2005. But he was third in the NFL at 45.7 per punt in 2006, and third in net punting as well (39.0).
• Optimism: Everyone stays healthy, and John Fox works his postseason magic (playoff mark of 5-2 ).
• Pessimism: Steve Smith (17 missed games last three years) gets hurt again, Panthers fizzle.

17. ST. LOUIS RAMS (previous rank: 19)

• 2006 record: 8-8 (1-5 vs. Quality Opponents)
• Cold, Hard Football Facts Flashback: Isaac Bruce hasn’t led Rams in receiving since 1999, yet he’s had five 1,000+ yards seasons in those seven years (including 2006, 1,098).
• Optimism: With QB Marc Bulger’s accuracy (2nd in INT%, 8th in completion% in 2006) and some new weapons, the Greatest Show on Turf returns.
• Pessimism: Defense is the Ugliest Show on Turf, and in a series of shootouts Rams get shot more than they shoot.

18. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (previous rank: 22)

• 2006 record: 7-9 (3-5 vs. Quality Opponents)
• Cold, Hard Football Facts Flashback: It was a simple formula in 2006: in San Fran's seven wins, RB Frank Gore averaged 138.6 yards rushing. In their nine losses, he averaged 80.6.
• Optimism: Resurgent Niners go to the Super Bowl, dedicate it to late, great Bill Walsh.
• Pessimism: Gore’s broken hand leads to attack of fumblitis, young Niners defense takes a step back despite additions.

19. NEW YORK GIANTS (previous rank: 15)

• 2006 record: 8-9 (2-7 vs. Quality Opponents)
• Cold, Hard Football Facts Flashback: Tiki Barber went out of football on top, with three of the 37 best yards-from-scrimmage seasons in NFL history: 2,096 in 2004 (37th), 2,390 in 2005 (2nd) and 2,127 in 2006 (32nd).
• Optimism: Eli Manning and the rest of the young Giants mature, Coughlin coaxes them into another weak NFC playoff.
• Pessimism: Giants were mediocre with Tiki, and Tiki’s gone. That sound bad to anyone else?

20. TENNESSEE TITANS (previous rank: 17)

• 2006 record: 8-8 (2-6 vs. Quality Opponents)
• Cold, Hard Football Facts Flashback: As a punt returner, Pacman Jones had one of the most remarkable stat lines in NFL history; in addition to leading the league in average return (12.9) and yards (440), he had as many fair catches (3) as he did touchdowns.
• Optimism: Vince Young’s arm catches up with his legs, and the Titans hop on his back for a playoff ride.
• Pessimism: Without Pacman's big plays and Travis Henry’s big run, Titans tumble back to cellar. Also see “Jinx, Madden.”

21. MIAMI DOLPHINS (previous rank: 23)

• 2006 record: 6-10 (3-4 vs. Quality Opponents)
• Cold, Hard Football Facts Flashback: The Dolphins finished No. 29 in scoring offense in 2006, their worst ranking in franchise history and one of only three times they ranked in the NFL’s bottom five.
• Optimism: Trent Green is major upgrade at QB, and Dolphins defense is always up to the task. Playoffs or bust.
• Pessimism: Speaking of busts, the Miami offense is littered with them. Add coach Cam Cameron to the list after a Fin Flop in Florida .

22. GREEN BAY PACKERS (previous rank: 20)

• 2006 record: 8-8 (1-6 vs. Quality Opponents)
• Cold, Hard Football Facts Flashback: Donald Driver led all NFL WRs with 541 yards after the catch in 2006 (Anquan Boldin 2nd, 504). He was also tied for 7th in drops (8).
• Optimism: Packers have rebuilt nicely, and Brett Favre was just waiting for the guys to catch up. Lombardi would be proud.
• Pessimism: Another year older, another year worse for Favre. End this charade already.

23. BUFFALO BILLS (previous rank: 23)

• 2006 record: 7-9 (1-7 vs. Quality Opponents)
• Cold, Hard Football Facts Flashback: The Bills dropped just 10 passes in 2006, fewest in the NFL.
• Optimism: Rookie RB Marshawn Lynch is a force, tough Bills gut out No. 6 playoff seed in AFC.
• Pessimism: Brutal schedule, brutal weather, brutal season.

24. WASHINGTON REDSKINS (previous rank: 25)

• 2006 record: 5-11 (2-4 vs. Quality Opponents)
• Cold, Hard Football Facts Flashback: The Redskins didn’t get much attention for their ground game in 2006, but they were tied for third in the NFL with 75 runs of 10+ yards, 8th in yards per attempt (4.5), 4th in rushing first downs and fourth in yards gained.
• Optimism: Gibbs won with Theismann, Rypien and Williams. Why not Jason Campbell?
• Pessimism: Washington continues to have the worst defense this side of Sacco and Vanzetti; owner Daniel Snyder fires all the secretaries at year’s end.

25. ARIZONA CARDINALS (previous rank: 27)

• 2006 record: 5-11 (1-6 vs. Quality Opponents)
• Cold, Hard Football Facts Flashback: WR Anquan Boldin averages 6.1 catches per game over his four-year career (all-time leader Jerry Rice averaged 5.1 per game). Boldin already has more catches in 56 games (342) than Hall of Famer Lynn Swann had in 115 games (336).
• Optimism: New coach, great young QB, weak division in a weak conference – Cardinals are this year’s Saints.
• Pessimism: Same problems on defense, QB Leinart struggles, NFC West steps up – Cardinals are this year’s Cardinals.

26. HOUSTON TEXANS (previous rank: same)

• 2006 record: 6-10 (1-5 vs. Quality Opponents)
• Cold, Hard Football Facts Flashback: Hitting the hole: Texans RB Ahman Green had a subpar 2006 season with the Packers, but he was hit for a loss only 5.6 percent of the time (3rd in the NFL). Leading the way in that category last year was Green’s Houston backup, Ron Dayne (4 percent).
• Optimism: Playoffs might not be in the cards, but new QB Matt Schaub and expensive defensive line (four first-rounders in five years) will start to pay off.
• Pessimism: Business as usual – and business is bad.

27. DETROIT LIONS (previous rank: 27)

• 2006 record: 3-13 (1-5 vs. Quality Opponents)
• Cold, Hard Football Facts Flashback: Detroit's Tatum Bell, Kevin Jones and Jon Kitna lost 19 fumbles last year: Kitna 9, Bell 5 (with Denver) and Jones 5 with Detroit, all in the top 10.
• Optimism: Close losses (nine by 8 points or less in 2006) turn into close wins, and rookie WR Calvin Johnson has Randy Moss-like impact (17 TD) as rookie.
• Pessimism: Lions disappoint perpetually disappointed fans again, but reward GM Matt Millen with lifetime contract.

28. MINNESOTA VIKINGS (previous rank: same)

• 2006 record: 6-10 (1-4 vs. Quality Opponents)
• Cold, Hard Football Facts Flashback: Minnesota had only one 100-yard receiving game in 2006 (Troy Williamson, 102 yards in Week 2).
• Optimism: QB Tarvaris Jack son and the passing game are good enough to get by, and the Vikes ride the best offensive and defensive lines in the NFC to the playoffs.
• Pessimism: Teams stack eight in the box against the offense and throw at will against the defense … hey, wait, that’s what happened in 2006!

29. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS  (previous rank: same)

• 2006 record: 4-12 (1-6 vs. Quality Opponents)
• Cold, Hard Football Facts Flashback: Rookie QB Bruce Gradkowski led the Bucs with 1,661 passing yards in 2006; if new QB Jeff Garcia leads the team in 2007 he’ll be the seventh different passer to do so in the last nine seasons (Dilfer, King, Johnson, Griese, Simms).
• Optimism: The Bucs took their lumps last year, but they were in the 2005 playoffs. A good season from Garcia, and they’ll be back.
• Pessimism: Tampa’s not just bad, it’s old – a 36-year-old QB (Garcia), 35-year-old go-to WR (Joey Galloway), 33-year-old MLB Derrick Brooks and twin 30+ CBs (Ronde Barber, Brian Kelly). Someone’s got to break a hip in that mix.

30. CLEVELAND BROWNS (previous rank: 31)

• 2006 record: 4-12 (2-5 vs. Quality Opponents)
• Cold, Hard Football Facts Flashback: Cleveland's No. 30 rank in scoring in 2006 was no surprise. In eight years since their rebirth, they’ve been 25th or worse seven times.
• Optimism: If the Jets can go from 4-12 to 10-6 (as they did in 2006), so can the Browns in 2007.
• Pessimism: Brady Quinn gets the call, but reverts to his pre-Charlie Weis self – and Weis’ buddy Romeo Crennel gets the boot after another lost season by the lake.

31. ATLANTA FALCONS (previous rank: 24)

• 2006 record: 7-9 (0-5 vs. Quality Opponents)
• Cold, Hard Football Facts Flashback: The Falcons were the only team in the league in 2006 to have more rushing yards (2,939) than passing yards (2,682).
• Optimism: Not a single Falcons player is arrested for animal fighting en route to a surprisingly OK season.
• Pessimism: Without Michael Vick’s legs, the Falcons show just how little they have to offer. “With the No. 1 pick in the 2008 NFL Draft, the Atlanta Falcons select …”

32. OAKLAND RAIDERS (previous rank: 32)

• 2006 record: 2-14 (0-9 vs. Quality Opponents)
• Cold, Hard Football Facts Flashback: How bad was the Raider offense in 2006? Randy Moss led the Raiders in touchdowns with a paltry three – all of which he had by Week 7.
• Optimism: New coach Lane Kiffin changes the culture in Oakland completely, and the Raiders add a competitive offense to their solid defense.
• Pessimism: Just Suck, Baby!