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Dominant Dozen: Week 12 2006
Cold, Hard Football Facts for November 21, 2006

By Cold, Hard Football Facts contributor Jonathan Comey
 
It looked like the NFC was starting to catch up with the AFC over the first few weeks of the season. The Saints, Rams and Vikings were red-hot, and it was feeling a little like old times for the proud squads of the NFL’s senior circuit, which dominated the league in the 1980s and early '90s, but hasn’t posted a winning record against the AFC since 1995.
 
It turns out that the AFC is still in contol. The NFC has gone 4-11 in interconference play over the past three weeks, leaving it with a not-so-impressive record of 20-28 on the season. AFC teams have won seven of the past nine Super Bowls and appear poised for another, with five teams at 7-3 or better compared to just one in the NFC ... but that team is Chicago, which moves back to the top of the Dominant Dozen following its 10-0 blanking of the Jets in the Meadowlands.
 
The Bears hold a three-game lead on the rest of the NFC, where there’s an unattractive five-team logjam at 6-4.
 
It’s rare for one team to be that much better than its conference mates. In the post-merger era, only four teams have ended the season with a lead of three games or more in their conference:
  • 1972 Dolphins (14-0, runner-up: 11-3)
  • 1978 Steelers (14-2, runner up: 11-5)
  • 1984 49ers (15-1, runner-up: 11-5)
  • 1985 Bears (15-1, runner-up: 11-5)
All four of those teams went on to win the Super Bowl, but no team has managed to lead its conference by three games since the salary cap was imposed in 1994.
 
THE DOMINANT DOZEN:
1. CHICAGO (previous rank: 2)
2006 records: 9-1; 2-0 vs. quality opponents (teams over .500). 
 
Last week: Offense? We don’t need no stinking offense! The Bears pitched their second shutout of the season in a 10-0 win over the Jets in New Jersey.
 
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Since the start of 2005, Chicago has allowed 10 points or fewer in 15 of its 25 games – a remarkable 60 percent of the time.  
 
Next: at New England. This will be Chicago’s third straight trip to the Northeast after back-to-back weeks at Giants Stadium.
 
2. INDIANAPOLIS (previous rank: 1)  
2006 records: 9-1; 4-1 vs. quality opponents. 
 
Last week: Indy’s perfect season ended in Dallas, 21-14.
 
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Joseph Addai (131 carries) and Dominic Rhodes (122 carries) are still splitting time, but Addai has had a better yards-per-carry average in eight of the Colts' 10 games this season.
 
Next: vs. Philadelphia. Five of Indy’s final six games are against teams .500 or below. 
 
3. SAN DIEGO (previous rank: 4)
2006 records: 8-2; 1-2 vs. quality opponents. 
 
Last week: The Chargers became the first team EVER to erase a 17+ point deficit two weeks in a row. Both comebacks were on the road. With a first-year quarterback. And with Marty Schottenheimer of “Marty Ball” fame as head coach.
 
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Newsflash! LaDainian Tomlinson is good. 
 
Next: vs. Oakland.
 
4. BALTIMORE (previous rank: 5)
2006 records: 8-2; 2-2 vs. quality opponents. 
 
Last week: The Ravens held an opponent under 20 points for the first time in over a month, beating Atlanta 24-10.
 
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Derrick Mason needs 511 receiving yards  in six games to extend his five-year streak of 1,000-yard seasons. Mason has only 179 receiving yards over his last five games.
 
Next: vs. Pittsburgh.
 
5. DENVER (previous rank: 3)
2006 records: 7-3; 3-2 vs. quality opponents. 
 
Last week: The Broncos lost a key AFC West battle to San Diego behind another shaky effort from Jake Plummer (53.1 rating vs. Chargers, 69.7 rating on the season).
 
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Plummer is the only QB with a passer rating in the league’s bottom 11 who leads a team that’s over .500.
 
Next: at Kansas City (Thanksgiving night).
 
6. NEW ENGLAND (previous rank: 8) 
2006 records: 7-3; 0-2 vs. quality opponents. 
 
Last week: The Patriots' 35-0 win in Green Bay was their most decisive since Week 2 of the 2002 season (44-7 over Jets). 
 
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Running backs Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney both average 4.2 YPC; together, they have 1,087 yards and 10 TDs.
 
Next: vs. Chicago. It's a battle of the top two scoring defenses in football.
 
7. DALLAS (6-4, previous rank: 13)
2006 records: 6-4; 2-2 vs. quality opponents. 
 
Last week: The Cowboys made the 1972 Dolphins happy with a 21-14 win over Indy. 
 
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Tony Romo has been spectacular in his four starts: 87 of 124 (70.2%) for 1,088 yards, 6 TDs, 2 INTs and a 106.5 passer rating.
 
Next: vs. Tampa Bay (Thanksgiving afternoon).
 
8. KANSAS CITY (previous rank: 10)
2006 records: 6-4; 2-1 vs. quality opponents. 
 
Last week: Trent Green came back, but Larry Johnson did the heavy lifting in an ugly 17-13 win over the Raiders.
 
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Johnson is on pace for 397 carries this year; if he goes over 400, he’ll be the first back to hit that mark since Atlanta’s Jamal Anderson (410 in 1998).
 
Next: vs. Denver (Thanksgiving night).
 
9. JACKSONVILLE (5-4, previous rank: 12)  
2006 records: 6-4; 2-1 vs. quality opponents. 
 
Last week: The unpredictable Jaguars rose to the occasion again, winning one for the suit at home against the Giants.
 
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Jacksonville has held the Manning brothers to a combined 33 of 72 passing (45.8 percent) this season.
 
Next: at Buffalo.
 
10. CAROLINA ( previous rank: 14)
2006 records: 6-4; 2-1 vs. quality opponents. 
 
Last week: The Panthers handed the Rams their first shutout since 1998.
 
Cold, Hard Football Facts: The Panthers have improved in scoring in each of John Fox’s first four seasons (258, 325, 355, 391), but are on pace to score just 282 points this season (24th in NFL).
 
Next: at Washington.
 
11. N.Y. GIANTS (previous rank: 6)
2006 records: 6-4; 1-4 vs. quality opponents. 
 
Last week: The Giants’ offense couldn’t get it going against Jacksonville; including the playoffs, Eli Manning has thrown 20 touchdowns and 22 interceptions over his last 16 games.
 
Cold, Hard Football Facts: The Giants are 1-4 vs. quality opponents this year, allowing 30.8 PPG (they allow just 10.8 PPG against teams .500 or worse).
 
Next: at Tennessee.
 
12. NEW ORLEANS (previous rank: 7)
2006 records: 6-4; 0-2 vs. quality opponents.  
 
Last week: Drew Brees passed for 510 yards, the sixth-most in NFL history, but the Saints couldn’t overcome four turnovers in a loss to Cincinnati.
 
Cold, Hard Football Facts: It's a bad combo for the Saints’ defense: They rank 29th in yards per rush against (4.8) and 30th in turnovers forced (11).
 
Next: at Atlanta.
 
THE TEPID TWENTY:
13. SEATTLE (6-4, previous rank: 9) – Darrell Jackson quietly leads the league in TD catches (8) and is on pace for 80 receptions and 1,256 yards.
 
14. CINCINNATI (5-5, previous rank: 17)  Carson Palmer has 2,039 yards passing to WRs; that’s more than 15 NFL teams have total.  
 
15. PHILADELPHIA (5-5, previous rank: 11)  Eagles ran 93 offensive plays in their loss to Tennessee, the most by any team this season, but scored just 13 points. That’s an average of a touchdown about every 46 plays.
 
16. N.Y. JETS (5-5, previous rank: 15)  Jets have been outgained by an average of 64 yards a game, and they’re minus-1 in turnovers. How are they 5-5? 
 
17. PITTSBURGH (4-6, previous rank: 19) – Ben Roethlisberger has already thrown more passes in nine games (306) than he did in 13 games a year ago (268); his completion percentage is identical: 62.7.
 
18. ATLANTA (5-5, previous rank: 16) – Falcons 5-5 this year, 8-8 in 2005 and 45-44-1 since drafting Michael Vick.
 
19. SAN FRANCISCO (5-5, previous rank: 25) – 49ers at .500 despite worst scoring defense in the league (26.5 against).
 
20. MIAMI (4-6, previous rank: 22) – Hard target: WR Chambers has had a league-high 59 incomplete passes thrown his way (42 receptions).
 
21. BUFFALO (4-6, previous rank: same) – Lee Evans has 44.7 percent of Bills’ receiving yards (highest percentage in NFL).
 
22. ST. LOUIS (4-6, previous rank: 18) – Five-game skid is Rams’ longest since starting 2002 season 0-5
 
23. MINNESOTA (4-6, previous rank: 24) – QB Johnson has five INTs in the fourth quarter (third-most in NFL).
 
24. GREEN BAY (4-6, previous rank: 20) – Fans occasionally wear cheese on their heads.
 
25. CLEVELAND (3-7, previous rank: 23) – Cleveland is averaging 1.9 points in the first quarter.
 
26. HOUSTON (3-7, previous rank: same) – Texans have amassed 190 first downs (10th in the league), but just 165 points (28th).
 
27. TAMPA BAY (3-7, previous rank: 30) – Ronde Barber is on pace for 104 solo tackles – remarkable for a cornerback.
 
28. TENNESSEE (3-7, previous rank: 29) – Uniform pants are simply too blue.
 
29. WASHINGTON (3-7, previous rank: 27) – Champ Bailey trade looking worse and worse for Redskins: Washington is 32nd in defensive passer rating (103.0).
 
30. OAKLAND (2-8, previous rank: 31) – Raiders didn’t give up a sack for the first time in 2006; Aaron Brooks added 34 yards rushing for good measure. They still lost.
 
31. ARIZONA (2-8, previous rank: 32) – Edgerrin James has had back-to-back games over 4.0 YPC for the first time since leaving Indy.
 
32. DETROIT (2-8, previous rank: 28) – Two more losses and Detroit will become second franchise ever to post six straight seasons with 10+ defeats (Tampa, 1983-1994).

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